This story is a part of Recode by Vox’s Tech Support sequence, which explores options for our warming world.
Between the battery electrics, plug-in hybrids, and radar-festooned self-driving vehicles on the streets right here in San Francisco, the slick pink Toyota Mirai doesn’t flip many heads.
That’s regardless of it being one of the vital technologically superior vehicles on this planet and one of many rarest. Since it went on sale in 2015, Toyota has offered solely about 10,000 of the sedans within the United States (out of a complete of roughly 290 million registered vehicles within the nation). Yet it simply blends in with visitors.
The Mirai takes styling cues from Toyota’s extra mundane choices, just like the Corolla and the Camry. Inside the cabin, it has the match, end, noise isolation, and heated seats of a luxurious automobile. Behind the wheel, the Mirai has the torquey pull of an electrical motor, launching up steep streets and feeling way more nimble than its 4,200-pound weight would recommend.
It’s solely whenever you pop the hood you can see what units the Mirai aside: a tidy silver block with the Toyota emblem and the phrases “fuel cell.” And behind the again seat is a tank full of hydrogen gasoline — essentially the most ample factor within the universe, and doubtlessly a clear gas whose essential “waste” product is water.
The world is determined for extra methods to curb carbon dioxide air pollution. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, world greenhouse gasoline emissions should peak and decline by 2025 to maintain warming this century beneath 1.5 levels Celsius. That’s lower than 1,000 days away, but world emissions are nonetheless rising. And transportation alone accounts for 20 p.c of worldwide emissions.
That’s the place hydrogen power is available in — corporations like Toyota assume it might be the long run, or not less than part of it (“Mirai” means “future” in Japanese). While different clear power applied sciences like battery-powered autos have gained momentum, they aren’t rolling out quick sufficient or low-cost sufficient. Hydrogen might assist get the world to its local weather objectives quicker by powering not solely vehicles just like the Mirai, but additionally ships and plane within the close to future.
Hydrogen has potential makes use of past autos, too: It could make artificial fuels and retailer energy for the electrical energy grid; it may well additionally clear up industries which can be notoriously laborious to decarbonize, like metal manufacturing.
These promising use circumstances have pushed curiosity and funding in hydrogen as gas prior to now, which is why you will have heard about it earlier than: Presidents George W. Bush and Barack Obama touted hydrogen and invested authorities cash into researching and growing the gas. But the hype light every time as excessive manufacturing prices, sensible challenges, and a restricted infrastructure for hydrogen-powered autos received in the best way. For hydrogen-powered vehicles to really take off wherever, they’ll first require an unlimited community of fueling stations, pipelines, and producers — primarily a hydrogen financial system — to compete and win towards fossil fuels. The US has by no means gotten near constructing one thing like this.
But for now, the momentum behind hydrogen power is as soon as once more constructing as its demand grows and the expertise behind it improves. According to 2018 information, hydrogen gas cells have dropped 60 p.c in worth since 2006, whereas their sturdiness elevated fourfold.
In 2021, Toyota offered greater than 2,600 Mirais within the US, a report. Other hydrogen vehicles have entered the market too, together with the Hyundai Nexo and the Honda Clarity. As of March 1, greater than 12,000 hydrogen gas cell autos have been offered or leased within the US. Meanwhile, Delta Airlines and Airbus in March signed an settlement to develop hydrogen-powered plane. New hydrogen manufacturing vegetation are within the works within the US. In February, President Joe Biden introduced near $10 billion in funding to spice up hydrogen manufacturing, infrastructure, and analysis.
Overseas, China introduced plans to produce as a lot as 200,000 tons of carbon-free hydrogen per yr to assist run a fleet of fifty,000 gas cell-powered autos by 2025. The United Kingdom is aiming to double its hydrogen manufacturing. Globally, hydrogen manufacturing and transportation has acquired greater than $80 billion in funding.
In a second when the urgency of the local weather disaster can’t be understated, hydrogen is getting one other probability to assist clear up the planet.
The hydrogen palette, defined
Like many clear applied sciences, hydrogen has difficult nuances, particularly in the case of its “clean” credentials. For one factor, many researchers and engineers would argue that hydrogen shouldn’t be an power supply; it’s an power provider. It’s analogous to a battery, which might maintain power however nonetheless wants one other solution to cost it. While hydrogen is essentially the most ample factor within the universe, it’s often connected to different molecules right here on earth.
To use it as a gas, you need to first type hydrogen gasoline, H2 (two hydrogen atoms caught collectively), which requires a supply of hydrogen atoms and an power enter. Hydrogen gasoline is extra of a intermediary between an power supply and its use in a automobile, boat, or energy plant. It usually takes extra power to make H2 than you get from utilizing it, much like how a battery requires a bit extra power to cost up than it releases in use. According to the International Energy Agency, hydrogen manufacturing accounts for 830 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions per yr, equal to the footprint of the United Kingdom and Indonesia mixed.
Hydrogen itself is an odorless, colorless gasoline irrespective of the way it’s produced, however the numerous methods to make hydrogen are sometimes categorized by shade. The essential kinds of hydrogen to concentrate to are grey hydrogen and inexperienced hydrogen.
In the US, 95 p.c of hydrogen is grey hydrogen, which is made with steam-methane reforming. The course of makes use of steam as sizzling as 1,800°F to react with methane underneath excessive strain, yielding hydrogen, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide. It’s low-cost, but it surely has a carbon footprint: Every kilogram of grey hydrogen leads to about 10 kilograms of carbon dioxide.
Green hydrogen, alternatively, attracts on renewable power to separate water into hydrogen and oxygen, a course of referred to as electrolysis. It produces zero carbon dioxide emissions, but it surely’s upward of twice as costly to provide as grey hydrogen and it accounts for lower than 1 p.c of the world’s hydrogen manufacturing.
There are different colours too — blue, pink, turquoise, black, white — distinguished by the place the hydrogen comes from and the way a lot carbon dioxide the method emits.
For hydrogen to really assist with confronting the local weather disaster, the world should work out produce cleaner hydrogen at bigger scales and decrease value. Last yr, the US Department of Energy launched a analysis program referred to as Hydrogen Shot with the intention of creating clear hydrogen for $1 per kilogram in 10 years.
As for utilizing hydrogen, there are two essential methods to place it to work. One is to burn it like some other gasoline in engines, much like typical inner combustion engines that run on fuels like gasoline and diesel. Unlike these fuels, hydrogen doesn’t launch dangerous emissions whenever you burn it. The different method is to ship hydrogen by way of a gas cell. This machine separates hydrogen into protons and electrons, with the electrons producing a present to energy a motor and the protons reacting with oxygen within the air to make water.
Fuel cells even have a protracted historical past courting again to the 1800s. But solely lately did their value, effectivity, and sturdiness attain the degrees wanted for extra widespread use.
With each gas cells and combustion, hydrogen’s makes use of can scale from small unmanned plane to storing and dispatching electrical energy on the facility grid. Its potential to scale back emissions could be very actual — however quite a bit has to fall into place first.
What it’s prefer to personal a hydrogen gas cell automobile
The ins and outs of proudly owning a hydrogen-powered automobile illustrate the gas’s promise, but additionally the immense hurdles it should overcome as a way to take a chunk of greenhouse gasoline emissions and anchor a brand new clear trade.
There are large benefits to a hydrogen automobile: It can refuel in 5 minutes, in comparison with generally hours of charging wanted for a battery electrical automobile. You additionally don’t want entry to a automobile charger, however relatively a pump much like one used for gasoline, usually on the similar station.
That’s one purpose that motivated Darren Higuchi of Alameda, California, to purchase a Mirai final yr. Since he lives in a multifamily constructing, Higuchi stated he doesn’t have the choice to put in a automobile charger at residence. “I see people lining up for [the Tesla supercharger nearby], parking and waiting, and that’s more maintenance than I want to deal with,” he stated.
Hydrogen gas cell vehicles have the identical clean and quiet electrical drivetrain as battery-powered vehicles, which additionally brings decrease upkeep prices in comparison with gasoline and diesel engines. Drivers can use carpool lanes in most states as properly.
There are monetary incentives, too: Mirais include a manufacturing facility rebate, a federal tax credit score, and California’s clear car credit score, which drops its out-the-door worth from round $60,000 to $35,000. Toyota additionally offers homeowners $15,000 value of hydrogen gas at no cost. Out of pocket, filling up a Mirai prices between $70 to $100 and offers near 400 miles of vary.
But for all of the work Toyota put into making an interesting hydrogen automobile, its largest drawbacks are past the corporate’s management.
Most of the hydrogen fueling stations within the US are in California. The state has 52 hydrogen stations, together with two in San Francisco, and 121 in growth, in response to the California Fuel Cell Partnership. But the stations are primarily concentrated across the San Francisco Bay Area and Southern California. There’s only one hydrogen station on the 340-mile I-5 stretch between the Bay Area and Greater Los Angeles.
On a highway journey to San Diego in his Mirai, Higuchi stated he gamed out the places of hydrogen fueling stations, how briskly he needed to drive, and the way a lot we needed to check the vary of the automobile. “I mapped out where I would go and paired that to anxiety levels,” he stated.
Right now, hydrogen infrastructure is caught in a rut. With so few hydrogen vehicles on the highway, it’s laborious to persuade corporations to take a position the roughly $2 million it sometimes prices to construct a single hydrogen station. But with so few stations, it’s robust to promote drivers on a hydrogen automobile.
The small scales of hydrogen manufacturing have additionally left it susceptible to shocks. Right now, most hydrogen produced within the US is used for chemical manufacturing. “We’ve been living off of surplus hydrogen that is being taken from other industries and being used for transportation,” stated Russ Mobley, a gross sales supervisor at San Francisco Toyota and a Mirai proprietor.
In 2019, a hydrogen explosion at a Santa Clara plant prompted shortages throughout the Bay Area for practically six months. During that point, Toyota gave Mirai drivers free rental vehicles to get round. “We didn’t drive our hydrogen cars. They became paperweights at that point in our driveways,” Mobley stated.
Compare these ordeals to battery-electric vehicles, which might cost up nearly wherever there’s a energy outlet or at one of many fast-charging stations cropping up rapidly across the nation. So whereas hydrogen vehicles themselves could also be wonderful, the weak infrastructure to assist them continues to carry them again.
Hydrogen must go large earlier than it may well go larger
The infrastructure hydrogen wants poses its personal technical challenges. It requires high-pressure pumps, fittings, and storage containers, a lot of that are costly boutique merchandise. The Covid-19 pandemic then threw up one other roadblock, disrupting the availability chains for hydrogen development tasks.
“These pumps are all handmade,” Mobley stated. “When the entire world shuts down and nobody’s in there manufacturing the bolts and nuts and seals, pretty much we saw the construction halt.”
The hope now could be that with bigger gamers like trucking and supply corporations investing in their very own hydrogen autos, they’ll drive economies of scale for everybody. With bigger autos, deliberate routes, and centralized fueling, these industrial makes use of is likely to be even a greater use for hydrogen than passenger vehicles. “As we rotate into more of the trucking industry getting into using hydrogen technology, the infrastructure is going to be beefed up considerably,” Mobley stated.
Daimler Truck, for instance, is among the world’s largest producers of business autos, accounting for about 58 p.c of the market for big freeway vans. The firm has already acquired approval for a hydrogen-powered truck in Germany and expects to start delivering hydrogen vans to clients in 2027. It’s additionally a shareholder in H2 Mobility Deutschland, a hydrogen fueling station operator that not too long ago raised 110 million euros from buyers. In addition, Daimler has teamed up with Volvo to construct a gas cell manufacturing facility scheduled to start operation in 2025.
As for industrial makes use of, Swedish metal producer Hybrit final yr started delivering metal made with a hydrogen-based course of that emits zero greenhouse gasses. Steel manufacturing accounts for round 7 p.c of carbon dioxide emissions. According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance, decarbonizing the trade with hydrogen would require $278 billion in funding by way of 2050.
On the manufacturing aspect, inexperienced hydrogen additionally must scale as much as drive down prices. The query is whether or not international locations and firms can brute drive a whole clear hydrogen trade into existence quick sufficient to satisfy local weather targets.
For its half, California thinks hydrogen is worth it. Last October, the California Air Resources Board put out a report on hydrogen infrastructure within the state. Looking at numerous situations, the report concluded California might run a self-sufficient hydrogen community servicing 1.8 million gas cell vehicles by 2035 with about $300 million in state funding.
Toyota, in the meantime, is hedging. The firm is investing $17.6 billion to provide a line of 30 battery electrical autos by 2030. Daimler can be pursuing battery-electric vans alongside hydrogen. Batteries have skilled a surprising 97 p.c drop in prices during the last 30 years, and battery-powered autos are already gaining floor world wide.
Some analysts are skeptical that hydrogen might ever catch up, not less than for vehicles and vans. “[T]he window of opportunity to establish a relevant market share for hydrogen cars is as good as closed,” argued Patrick Plötz, coordinator of the power financial system enterprise unit on the Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research in Germany, in Nature Electronics earlier this yr.
For vans, producers and governments must strengthen and quicker efforts to deploy them if they’ve any hope of hitting highways. “If truck manufacturers do not start the mass production of fuel cell trucks soon to reduce costs, such vehicles will never succeed in low-carbon road transport,” he wrote.
But Plötz stated hydrogen nonetheless might play essential roles in decarbonizing aviation, transport, and trade.
So regardless that a few of the largest automobile and truck producers are attempting to drive a hydrogen financial system into existence, it might be one more false begin. After a long time of hype and continued rising pains, it’s robust to get enthusiastic about hydrogen once more. But the potential for hydrogen as a pillar of unpolluted power is unattainable to disregard, and with extra funding than ever and the pressing want for instruments to sluggish local weather change, this is likely to be the second it lastly ignites.